Under the spotlight: Who will win the Premier League title?

The Premier League is building up to one of its most memorable finishes to date.

Leaders Arsenal and Liverpool are only separated by goal difference, while holders Manchester City sit just one point behind.

With 10 games remaining for all three teams, we decided to delve into the Twenty3 Toolbox to analyse each side’s chances of lifting the trophy come May.


Arsenal are fighting to win their first Premier League title since Arsene Wenger’s famous ‘Invincibles’ of 2003-04.

Mikel Arteta’s men collapsed toward the tail end of last season as City went on to secure a seventh title.

This term, the Gunners have a leaner squad. As shown by their numbers, they are one of the best defensive units in the division.

Arsenal lead the league for clean sheets (12), ball recoveries in the opponent’s half (942), xG conceded (24.99), and non-penalty goals allowed (22).

The introduction of Jakub Kiwior in place of Oleksandr Zinchenko at left-back has added to their defensive solidity. The Gunners now play with four natural centre-backs, with Kiwior lining up alongside William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães and Ben White.

In front of the back four, summer signing Declan Rice has been exceptional out of possession.

He has made an impressive 20 dangerous ball recoveries in the opponent’s half and has been successful in 211 of his 255 attempted defensive actions. 

Rice’s dominance in midfield has been crucial against some of the division’s more physical teams.

In attack, Arsenal are equally effective, having scored the most goals in the league (70) and registered the most touches inside the opposition box (964).

They often flood forward in numbers, overwhelming opponents and penning them into their own half.

Leading scorer Bukayo Saka is usually on hand to create or score. So far this season, he has 13 goals and seven assists, further establishing his importance for the Gunners.

With his ability to shoot, cross and run at the opposition, Arsenal’s No7 ranks first in the league for successful attacking actions (174).

Meanwhile, Martin Ødegaard orchestrates proceedings, aiming to unlock low blocks with incisive passes — no player in the league has completed more intelligent passes (21).

Arsenal have also become potent from set-pieces, proving particularly dangerous from corners thanks to the towering figures of Saliba and Gabriel.

The Gunners are a side poised to fire their way to a long-awaited title.


Liverpool sit second, battling to give Jurgen Klopp a king’s farewell.

The Reds have been plagued by injuries, but they are still flying high under the German tactician.

They lead the division for shots attempted (514), assists (42) and xG (59.86).

Darwin Núñez has brought his usual level of chaos and unpredictability in attack. Only now is he producing more direct goal involvements.

The 24-year-old has managed his best return yet in England, with 10 goals and seven assists, as well as averaging a league-leading 4.09 shots per 90 minutes.

Meanwhile, Mohamed Salah, despite injury, has managed 15 goals and seven assists. The Egyptian also ranks first in the division for key passes (32).

The Reds will need to keep their top scorer fit to maintain their title hopes. Salah has a reliability in front of goal that Núñez and Luis Diaz, despite their strong performances, lack.

Liverpool have been strong defensively, with nine clean sheets and just 26 goals conceded.

Virgil van Dijk remains one of the league’s best defenders, ranking in the top three for ball recoveries completed (370), loose ball duels won (46), and aerial duels won (120).

Klopp’s integration of youngsters, such as Jarell Quansah and Bobby Clark, has helped Liverpool overcome their injury issues in defence.

Both have slotted in seamlessly, bringing new qualities to the backline.

The big question is how quickly the Reds can get their star performers back to fitness.

Manchester City

Holders Manchester City are once again in the race for the Premier League title.

Pep Guardiola’s men overcame their stuttering start to the season, winning 10 of their last 13 to put the pressure on Arsenal and Liverpool.

Their last league outing, a thrilling 1-1 draw with Liverpool at Anfield, highlighted the fine margins in the 2023-24 title fight.

City have scored fewer league goals (63) and conceded more (28) than both their rivals this term, although they too have been affected by injuries.

Erling Haaland has had time on the sidelines, while playmaker Kevin De Bruyne has been out for most of the campaign.

In the Belgian’s absence, Phil Foden has taken on more responsibility, registering 11 goals and five assists for the season.

The England international has grown increasingly influential for Guardiola’s side, completing more link-up plays (167) than any other player in the division.

Haaland has been lethal when fit, scoring 18 times from 23 matches despite taking just the fifth-most non-penalty shots in the league (79).

Since De Bruyne’s return, City’s attacking play has been even more ominous. If he hits top form, the Citizens could well pull clear of Arsenal and Liverpool.

Rodri has continued to dominate in midfield. The Spaniard leads the league in passes completed (2,331) and successful balls into the final third (300).

The Madrid native also has the second-most ball recoveries in the opponent’s half (125).

He has also chipped in with nine goal involvements in the league this season (six goals and three assists).

Defensively, Guardiola’s side attempt to nullify their opposition by monopolising possession — no team has more completed passes (16,764) and they have the fewest defensive actions attempted (3,035).

Subsequently, they have the second-best xGA tally of 27.78 and second-fewest non-penalty shots allowed (211).

There have perhaps been better iterations of Guardiola’s City, but they remain a top team with supremely talented individuals, who have all the required experience to win the Premier League.


Arsenal’s next outing will be telling as they make the trip to the Etihad to face City. They fell to a humbling 4-1 defeat in Manchester last season, a result which all but ended their title hopes.

The Gunners also have visits to Tottenham and Manchester United on the horizon. Both games could be significant in their quest to become champions.

Liverpool and City hold a potentially significant advantage over the current leaders: their experience of getting the job done at the tail end of a season.

The Reds have the added motivation of giving Klopp a winning send-off.

City, though, are no strangers to chasing title rivals down. They will be unfazed by the changing narratives over the next few weeks.

However, based on their defensive and attacking numbers, Arsenal have been on the balance the best side of the three so far.

Arteta’s side are well-coached, have improved in key positions, and, despite the less favourable fixture list, are well-positioned to win their first title in 20 years.

All graphics in this article were produced with the Twenty3 Toolbox. For more information, please get in touch below.