Twenty3’s Tactics Truck: What to watch out for in Roma vs AC Milan

Despite Napoli holding a huge lead at the summit of the Serie A, the best of the rest are fighting for their lives.

Only nine points separate Atalanta in seventh and Lazio in second – every spot is up for grabs as we enter the final stages of the season. 

The next twist in the roller coaster comes at the Stadio Olimpico where Roma host Champions League semi-finalists AC Milan in what promises to be a huge game for the top four. 

The two sides can only be separated by goals scored – they both sit on 56 points with a +14 goal difference – so we used the Twenty3 Toolbox to analyse who will come out on top in the capital. 

Dybala influence 

The signing of Paulo Dybala was viewed as a coup and, utilising Twenty3’s Smart Reports, we can see evidence of the Argentine’s growing influence in the Italian capital.

The start of his campaign was interrupted by injuries, but he is now one of Roma’s key figures in attack – scoring 11 goals and providing six assists in Serie A. 

Jose Mourinho tends to place him on the right-hand side, evidenced by his heat map.

Due to his deadly left foot, the 29-year-old tends to drift inside towards the right-half space from that position. 

Based on his xG shot map, Dybala can even act as a second striker – most of his chances are in high-quality positions in the middle of the box. 

His xG stands at 7.81, so his tally of 11 goals suggests that the Argentine is overperforming in front of goal, but his quality makes this sustainable. 

Both he and AC Milan star Rafael Leão rank highly for attacking metrics, with the Portuguese winger only bettering him on key passes and aerial duels. 

Milan width 

Stefano Pioli’s attacking set-up is very effective but it also leaves gaps.

AC Milan play with very high wingers, as the passing network visualisation below shows.

The left-winger and left-back, usually Leao and Theo Hernandez, both generally operate past the halfway line and are effective at creating overloads. 

However, it does leave AC Milan vulnerable to transitions, due to the space they leave behind the pair. 

Fikayo Tomori, usually the left-sided centre-back, can be left isolated in these situations. 

Mourinho will be well aware of this, especially as his sides famously look to exploit space on the counter-attack. In particular, it could play to Dybala’s strengths. 

Leão danger 

Rafael Leão is AC Milan’s key outlet in the final third – the vast majority of the Rossoneri’s creative influence flows through the winger as you can see in the visualisation below. 

The Portugal international tends to hug the touchline before attacking the box with a dribble or a pass, as evidenced by the passing flow graphic.

His 12 goals in Serie A demonstrate his goalscoring threat. That, in combination with the 23-year-old’s creativity (six assists) makes him one of the best players in the division. 

The shot assist map demonstrates his capacity to set up his teammates from inside the box. 

Roma will have to diminish Leão’s influence if they want to win the game – his creative prowess has the potential to wreak havoc in dangerous areas. 

Gianluca Mancini, the usual right centre-back in Roma’s defensive three, will likely call on Zeki Celik – his right wing-back – to track back and help him double-up on the winger from minute one.

Roma sitting deep

Mourinho is famous for setting his sides up to sit in a low block. 

His Roma side are no different, especially when matched up against a high-quality side, and this will be a theme of the game at the Stadio Olimpico – the visualisation below depicts how high each side engages their opponents.

The bulk of Roma’s defensive actions tend to come on the edge of their own box, meaning they allow sides to enter the final third at a much higher frequency than AC Milan. 

The Rossoneri’s action areas, meanwhile, are higher up the pitch, suggesting they are more aggressive when their opponents have the ball. 

This will be a key theme of the game – Roma will keep a deep defensive line to allow AC Milan the ball and hope to counter-attack when they win their duels on the edge of their box.

Tonali vs Cristante 

The midfield battle will be an intriguing one, as both sides have one key anchor that stands out in the middle of the park, as the comparison visualisation below indicates. 

Sandro Tonali is AC Milan’s midfield general – he is an excellent operator on the ball, contributing five assists so far this campaign. 

Bryan Cristante, meanwhile, is Roma’s own central lynchpin – his strengths lie more off the ball, which makes him an ideal midfielder for Mourinho. The 28-year-old has won an impressive 159 defensive duels this season. 

Interestingly, Cristante has completed a lot more passes (1,337 to 998) but Tonali has completed more dribbles (15 to seven), suggesting they possess different qualities in possession. 

Both players will look to win the midfield battle through their differing profiles, as it could be the difference between the sides in the capital.

All visualisations and Smart Reports in this article were produced with the Twenty3 Toolbox. For more information, please get in touch below.