The battle to start for Japan pt I: Goalkeepers
Japan dazzled with their group-stage performance at World Cup 2022, earning the admiration of many a neutral football fan.
The Blue Samurai pulled off shock 2-1 victories over European heavyweights Germany and Spain to top Group E – but their fairytale tournament was ended on penalties in the round of 16 against 2018 finalists Croatia.
Since the end of that tournament, Hajime Moriyasu’s men have been in scintillating form, losing just one of their subsequent eight friendly games and winning their last six in a row, scoring a whopping 24 goals in that run.
Japan have moved away from a number of veterans that underpinned the success of their World Cup campaign and are building a young side ahead of World Cup 2026.
The core of that team is largely settled but question marks remain over the identity of their first-choice goalkeeper and centre-forward, as well as how best to incorporate their array of supporting attacking talent.
Using the Twenty3 Toolbox, we have attempted to answer the first of those three selection questions, using data to identify which goalkeeper should be starting for Japan.
The quartet of contenders
Shuichi Gonda was ever-present between the sticks for Japan in Qatar, but the 34-year-old has been phased out since – he has not been called up once in 2023.
A clear successor has yet to be chosen, however, with four goalkeepers – Sanfrecce Hiroshima’s Keisuke Osako, Portimonense’s Kosuke Nakamura and Sint-Truiden pair Daniel Schmidt and Zion Suzuki – featuring for the Blue Samurai this calendar year.
Osako, 24, has started on three occasions, while 21-year-old Suzuki’s ousting of counterpart Schmidt, 31, at club level earned him a spot in the most recent match against Tunisia. Nakamura, 28, was afforded two starts – like Schmidt – but an injury suffered in early September has muddied the waters regarding his place in the pecking order.
The Twenty3 Toolbox’s Analyse function allows us to compare the quartet’s league numbers since the start of last season – adjusted to per 90 due to the gulf in minutes played between Suzuki and the rest, with the youngster hardly featuring at club level until recent weeks.
Shot-stopping
Of the four goalkeepers, two have conceded fewer goals per 90 than their post-shot xG conceded would suggest – Suzuki (whose numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt given he has played just six games in this period) and Nakamura.
Per 90, the former has averaged 1.68 goals conceded despite conceding a post-shot xG of 2.04, while the latter has shipped 1.36 goals from an average post-shot xG conceded of 1.5.
Furthermore, both players have been far busier than their counterparts, with Suzuki averaging 4.42 saves per 90 and Nakamura recording 4.05.
Those high save numbers are a reflection of the turmoil in front of the two players – but Japan were vastly out-shot in both their World Cup wins against Germany and Spain and having a goalkeeper used to withstanding long periods of pressure could certainly be a bonus.
Claiming crosses
The numbers also paint Suzuki as the most proactive when dealing with crosses.
Unlike with shot-stopping, his statistics for both goalkeeper exits (3.35) and aerial duels won (1.52) – though inflated – are significantly higher than those of his counterparts, perhaps hinting at a greater affinity for claiming high balls.
Once again, the caveat of playing in a side that have come under more pressure in recent weeks must also be applied, but even so, the young goalkeeper’s capacity to deal with that threat is encouraging.
In possession
Suzuki’s sample size once again sees him top the charts for passing numbers – but Schmidt and Nakamura both appear more comfortable with their feet than Osako.
Schmidt is the most direct of the four, completing more long passes on average (8.27), while Nakamura is the most secure, losing the ball the least often per game (3.32).
Arkansas-born youngster Suzuki comes out on top again for forward passes (14.62) completed, as well as possessions (35.63) and sequences (38.07) featured in per 90 – though the aforementioned pair are not far behind in this respect.
Sweeping
Interestingly, it is Schmidt who stands above the rest – who profile similarly – when it comes to defensive involvement outside of goalkeeper-specific actions such as saves or claiming crosses.
Since the start of last term, he has succeeded with 2.15 defensive actions and registered 2.05 interceptions per 90, suggesting he is the most confident sweeper of the four.
His dropping for Suzuki at club level is curious, then, given his prowess in this area, and perhaps speaks to the esteem in which the younger man is held.
Who should start?
It is easy to see why Japan manager Moriyasu has had trouble picking between this closely-matched crop.
Suzuki’s numbers are particularly impressive, but only time will tell whether or not they are sustainable.
Until further evidence is gathered on that front, it would appear that Nakamura’s shot-stopping skills, general roundedness and greater experience might edge him ahead once he returns from injury, though Schmidt’s claim is almost equally strong.
Osako, meanwhile, does not profile as impressively as any of his counterparts and is also the only member of the four not playing in Europe. However, with Schmidt dropped at club level and Nakamura injured, he has been afforded the opportunity to catch the eye in rotation with Suzuki.
All visualisations in this article were produced with the Twenty3 Toolbox. For more information, please get in touch below.