Serie A preview: Italian giants seek scudetto success
Serie A is set to return and the race for the scudetto promises to be as intriguing as ever.
Holders Napoli will be out to defend their title, but the Italian top flight has become one of the most unpredictable divisions since Juventus’ hegemony was broken.
Ahead of the first matches of the weekend, we take a look at the key storylines in Serie A.
Title challengers
Napoli’s aim will be to win back-to-back scudettos, although the departure of manager Luciano Spalletti could prove damaging.
He has been replaced by former Roma and Lille boss Rudi Garcia, an appointment which has not been met with positivity from fans.
With centre-back Kim Min-jae sold to Bayern Munich and the vultures circling for last season’s top scorer Victor Osimhen, reaching the same heights again would be even more impressive.
The two Milan clubs will be poised to take advantage if there is any drop off from Napoli. Inter ended last season strongly and reached the Champions League final, and they are the bookies’ favourites to win another Serie A title.
Lazio will also expect to be in the mix again under Maurizio Sarri after finishing second and securing Champions League football.
Jose Mourinho’s Roma finished sixth last season and will be aiming to challenge higher up, while Juventus will hope disarray off the pitch doesn’t disrupt them on it again.
All of the challengers will have to close the gap to Napoli, who had the best xG (70.67) and xGA (32.29) in the division last season.
The race for Europe
Several teams will have aspirations of breaking into the top four, particularly after Napoli and Lazio proved that rapid ascension up the table is possible.
Qualifying for Europe’s premier competition is important for both Inter and Milan as they look to build on their progress over the last few years.
Roma will be hoping to qualify for the Champions League after falling at the final hurdle in the Europa League final. Going one better in that competition or breaking into the top four will be their focus.
For Juventus, too, an improvement on last season will be the aim as they look to return to the summit of Serie A while juggling the demands of a Europa Conference League campaign.
Atalanta were not far off the top four under Gian Piero Gasperini last term and will expect to challenge again, while Fiorentina could be dark horses — only Napoli had a better xG than La Viola in 2022-23 (67.09).
Keep an eye out for Monza after a strong first season in the top flight and Bologna under Thiago Motta after they ended last term in good form.
Relegation battlers
Frosinone are back in Serie A after four years away and are the bookies’ favourites to be relegated back to the second tier.
Fellow newly-promoted sides Genoa and Cagliari will hope to establish themselves back in the top flight after bouncing straight back from relegation in 2021-22.
The latter are coached by veteran Claudio Ranieri who, at 71, will hope his wealth of experience can keep his team clear of danger.
Salernitana could be dragged into another relegation battle — they had the worst xGA of any side in the division last season (67.33).
Verona, meanwhile, only avoided the drop with a win on the final day and could be set for another difficult season, while Lecce’s struggle to score could prove costly in 2023-24.
Star men
Napoli’s Osimhen will be the frontrunner to win the Golden Boot again — assuming the Italian champions keep hold of their star striker.
The 24-year-old hit 26 goals last season, ranking highest in the division for touches in the opposition box (202) and outperforming his xG of 23.62.
Much will also be expected of Milan’s Rafael Leão, who was named Serie A Footballer of the Year in 2022.
He scored 15 goals and provided eight assists in the league last season, ranking first for dribbles completed (262) and second for expected assists (6.16).
New arrivals
While the wealth of the Premier League and Saudi Arabia dominates the transfer market, the Serie A window has been relatively low-key.
Milan have made a handful of high-profile additions, though, bringing in Yunus Musah from Valencia, Christian Pulisic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek from Chelsea and Samuel Chukwueze from Villarreal.
The latter impressed in LaLiga last season, scoring six goals and providing four assists and ranking seventh in the division for dribbles completed (109).
Inter have replaced goalkeeper André Onana with Yann Sommer from Bayern Munich, while Napoli have filled the gap in defence left by the departing Kim with Brazilian youngster Natan.
Roma, although yet to pay a fee for any players, have made the shrewd addition of midfielder Houssem Aouar on a free transfer from Lyon.
Juventus, meanwhile, have brought in USA winger Timothy Weah from Lille.
Ones to watch
Winger Nicolò Cambiaghi impressed on loan at Empoli from Atalanta last season and could fit in well for Gasperini’s side after returning to his parent club.
The 22-year-old ranked in the top 10 for attacking duels won per 90 minutes (7.45), scoring six goals in a side that struggled in the bottom half of the table.
Motta’s Bologna are also blessed with some exciting talents, including centre-back Jhon Lucumí.
The Colombia international completed the seventh-most passes of any player in Serie A last season (1,690) at a success rate of 91.2%.
His defensive work is equally impressive, with 368 successful actions putting him in the division’s top 10.
Serie A looks primed to provide another entertaining campaign as Italy’s giants clash over the coveted scudetto.
All visualisations in this article were produced with the Twenty3 Toolbox. For more information, please get in touch below.