FA Cup focus: Which underdogs could triumph in the fourth round?
The ‘magic’ of the FA Cup is the crux of the historic competition’s allure.
The third round brought plenty of upsets with it, after Premier League quartet Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Newcastle United and Aston Villa were all knocked out by lower league opposition.
But non-league Wrexham pulled off arguably the standout result, shocking Championship side Coventry City – three divisions above them.
So, which underdogs have the best chance of replicating those heroics in the fourth round? We used the Twenty3 Toolbox to find out.
Accrington Stanley vs Leeds United (Saturday, 12:30pm)
League One outfit Accrington Stanley have overcome League Two Crawley Town and National League pair Barnet and Boreham Wood – requiring a replay against the latter – in their journey to the FA Cup fourth round.
It will be quite the change, then, when they welcome Premier League side Leeds United to the Crown Ground.
The Yorkshire club required a replay of their own to overcome the Championship’s Cardiff City, winning 5-2 after an initial 2-2 draw – Wilfried Gnonto and Patrick Bamford scoring twice each in the seven-goal thriller, while Rodrigo netted once in each game.
Young forward Sam Greenwood also acquitted himself well, assisting seven shots and completing five crosses over the two encounters.
Their Lancashire hosts, though, have already demonstrated they possess the battling qualities necessary to halt the Whites’ numerous attacking talents.
The Analyse tool reveals that Accrington rank top among all teams from the FA Cup first round onwards for defensive actions (241 attempted, 168 successful), aerial duels (114 attempted, 59 won) and loose ball duels (100 attempted, 45 won).
John Coleman’s men will certainly be forced to add to those impressive tallies when Leeds come to town – but they have what it takes to frustrate their opponents and pull off an upset.
Fulham vs Sunderland (Saturday, 3pm)
Sunderland have just returned to the Championship after four seasons in League One – but they are playing like a team in a hurry, ranking among the playoff candidates so far this term.
They entered this season’s FA Cup in the last round, beating Shrewsbury Town 2-1 in dramatic fashion, scoring in the 92nd and 94th minutes to come from behind and snatch victory.
That may paint the picture of a team undeserving of a place in the fourth round — but the Analyse tool tells us otherwise.
The Black Cats pushed hard for their win over the Shrews, completing 30 of their 62 attempted dribbles, winning 40 of their 95 attacking duels and completing 669 of their 753 attempted passes.
Tony Mowbray’s men were adventurous in possession throughout, also completing 194 forward passes and taking 20 shots.
No side still in the competition has averaged a higher tally per FA Cup match for any of the aforementioned metrics, according to the Football Lab’s rankings – Sunderland thoroughly deserved their late win.
Fulham sit seventh in the Premier League and represent far more daunting opponents than Shrewsbury – but if they play with the same fearlessness they displayed in their last cup outing, the Shropshire side are capable of catching the Cottagers off-guard in London.
Brighton and Hove Albion vs Liverpool (Sunday, 1:30pm)
Regardless of what this season’s Premier League table might suggest, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool are a big scalp – they are, after all, the FA Cup holders.
Of course, you could be forgiven for thinking that Brighton and Hove Albion might not be overly daunted at the prospect of hosting the Reds, having soundly beaten them 3-0 at the Amex Stadium in their last home league outing and sitting two points above them in the table.
They also produced arguably the most impressive performance of the third round, dismantling Middlesbrough 5-1 away from home.
The Seagulls are likely to repeat the approach that brought them such success in that game, and in their last clash with the Merseyside giants.
Against Middlesbrough, they displayed a controlled aggression, recording 36 progressive runs and completing 132 backward passes – the most and joint-most per match of any side in the FA Cup proper, according to the Football Lab.
Liverpool are in a slump, requiring a replay to progress past Wolverhampton Wanderers in the third round and failing to win any of their last three Premier League matches (D1 L2) – the reigning FA Cup champions could find themselves crashing out early against Brighton.
Wrexham vs Sheffield United (Sunday, 4:30pm)
Wrexham were responsible for the shock of the third round – and they could well repeat the feat when they host Sheffield United.
In star striker Paul Mullin, they boast the top scorer in the FA Cup proper. He has scored six goals from 12 shots, taking 14 touches in the opposition box – all competition-leading numbers since the first round, according to the Analyse tool.
He is not alone in the Red Dragons’ squad, when it comes to ranking top for one or several metrics among players since the first round.
Callum McFadzean leads the assist charts with three, Sam Dalby has attempted the most loose ball duels (22) and Mark Howard has attempted the most goalkeeper aerial duels (three) – and made the most goalkeeper exits (eight).
The Blades are a step up in quality from Wrexham’s last opponents Coventry, despite occupying the same division. Paul Heckingbottom’s men boast the best defence in the English second tier and are 13 points clear in second place.
However, Phil Parkinson’s plucky non-league outfit boast enough difference-makers to stun another Championship club.
Derby County vs West Ham United (Monday, 7:45pm)
After a stuttering start to their FA Cup campaign, being held to a 2-2 draw in the first round by non-league Torquay United, Derby County have marched on in unrelenting fashion.
The Rams won the replay 5-0, before beating Newport County 2-1 and Barnsley 3-0 to reach the fourth round, where they play host to Premier League opponents in West Ham United.
Paul Warne’s squad is packed with players that have impressed in the competition already, however, and the League One outfit certainly have the potential to pull off an upset.
On-loan Everton winger Lewis Dobbin has completed 13 of his 26 attempted dribbles, young midfield star Max Bird has completed 23 of his 33 attempted final third passes, veteran left-back Craig Forsyth has won 10 loose ball duels and goalkeeper Joe Wildsmith has completed 28 of his 45 attempted long balls – saving 10 of the 13 shots he faced and keeping two clean sheets.
According to the Football Lab, each of those players rank top in the competition since the first round for the metrics specified.
But the jewel in the Rams’ crown is undoubtedly 21-year-old centre-back Eiran Cashin.
In the FA Cup proper, no player has received (130), attempted (204) or completed (158) more passes, nor can any player boast a greater tally of defensive actions (66 attempted, 57 successful), defensive duels (32 attempted, 23 won), aerial duels (47 attempted, 25 won), interceptions (31) or ball recoveries (74 completed).
Even taking into account his red card in the 2-2 draw with Torquay that allowed the National League side to battle back from behind, those are astonishing numbers.
West Ham, meanwhile, have found themselves on the wrong end of numerous cup upsets in recent seasons – this could well be another.
All graphics in this article were produced with the Twenty3 Toolbox. For more information, please get in touch below.