EFL Focus: Predicting the League Two promotion battle

The fourth tier of English football is always full of drama – and the race for promotion this season is starting to heat up. 

After losing the play-off final on penalties last term, Stockport County are hungrier than ever to become a League One side. 

Meanwhile, Notts County and Hollywood-funded Wrexham have made the jump expertly from the National League, with back-to-back promotions for either side a distinct possibility.

The play-off race appears as tight as ever, too, with only ten points separating the fourth and 14th-placed teams in League Two.

As another tantalising round of action approaches, we’ve used Twenty3’s Toolbox to try and predict the four sides that could win promotion in 2023/24.

Sensational Stockport 

Stockport County, despite failing to win their last two league games, are currently the team to beat in League Two.

The Hatters have scored 40 goals this term – the joint-third most in the division – with a direct style of play behind their success in the final third. 

They have attempted the most crosses (443) and completed the fourth most dribbles (322) in the league, while only three teams can top their 50 headers at goal. 

But a powerful defensive unit has also been key to Stockport’s early season form.

Dave Challinor’s outfit have kept an impressive eight clean sheets, which is more than any other team in the fourth tier.

The Greater Manchester club have shown they can deal with the long-ball approach most League Two teams opt for, winning the second-most aerial duels so far this season (719). 

Louie Barry, who has scored nine goals in 15 appearances, suffered a long-term hamstring injury in October – but the leaders still look to have enough firepower to claim top spot, despite a mini-blip in the last two games. 

Double bounce

Wrexham and Notts County were involved in a thrilling National League title race last season – the Welsh side emerging as champions, while the latter earned promotion via the play-offs.

Both clubs have bridged the gap between non-league and the EFL with ease and appear set for another promotion push.

Wrexham are a particularly efficient machine, scoring 42 goals despite their somewhat cautious approach.

Phil Parkinson’s unit are happy to sit deep, having won the ball back in the defensive third the fourth-most times (593) in 2023/24. However, they are the fourth-worst team for winning possession back in the attacking third (62). 

Notts County have scored the same number of goals as their promotion rivals (42) but their approach play is distinctly different, completing the most passes in the league (10,271). 

Despite their contrasting styles, both of these outfits look in good shape for impressive back-to-back promotions. 

Macaulay Langstaff is the first-class forward that Notts County can rely on throughout the campaign. 

The striker already has 14 goals this campaign after scoring 42 times in the Nations League last term. 

Paul Mullin offers similar credentials for Wrexham. 

Despite an injury that stalled his progress at the start of the season, the 29-year-old has seven goals in 1056 minutes. 

Best of the rest

The League Two play-off battle is looking particularly intriguing.  

With half the division in the running for a top-seven finish, any team that goes on a winning run during the Christmas period could force their way into contention.

Swindon Town, currently just outside the play-offs on 30 points, stand out from the crowd due to their firepower in the final third. 

Jake Young, on loan from Bradford City where he was out of favour, has scored the most goals in the league (16).

The 22-year-old’s xG does stand at just 8.39, though, meaning he is massively overperforming in front of goal based on the chances he has been presented with.

This could lead to doubts over whether his scoring rate is sustainable, even if the striker is showing no visible sign of slowing down. 

Mansfield Town have been billed as promotion contenders for a number of years under the leadership of Nigel Clough.

The Stags have experienced a unique season so far, conceding only 17 goals and losing just one game. 

They have drawn nine matches, however, which could be their Achilles’ heel in the latter stages of the campaign. 

Elsewhere, Barrow have solidified themselves as a fourth tier side and now look well-equipped to challenge at the top.

Their sturdy rearguard has kept the joint-second most clean sheets so far this term (7). 

All things considered, League Two once again looks set for a captivating promotion race, with a host of worthy challengers set to take things down to the wire in 2023/24.

Stockport County, Wrexham and Notts County appear favourites for the top three – and don’t rule out Swindon Town enjoying Wembley success in May.

All visualisations in this article were produced with the Twenty3 Toolbox. For more information, please get in touch below.