Data drop: Everything you need to know about this week’s European fixtures

We’re down to the final four teams in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

And every side left in each respective competition will have visions of European glory, as they prepare for two hard-fought semi-final legs.

Ahead of some exciting ties, we’ve looked at all the key data.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid (Tuesday 30th April, 8pm)

Many expected an Arsenal vs Manchester City semi-final, but both Premier League teams were eliminated by European heavyweights who have been there and done it on countless occasions.

Given Bayern’s Bundesliga struggles this season, Los Blancos will be the favourites to reach yet another final.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side have been more productive in attack than their upcoming opponents, scoring 2.2 goals per match to Bayern’s 1.8 in the Champions League.

Both teams, though, have been susceptible defensively: Thomas Tuchel’s side have an xG conceded per 90 of 1.06, while Real’s xG conceded per 90 is a worrying 1.45.

Tuchel and Ancelotti were willing to surrender possession to Arsenal and City in their last-eight ties, but Bayern will expect to see more of the ball in the semis.

They have averaged 55.24% possession to Real’s 50.26%, and the Germans also rank first in the Champions League for duel success (52.2%).

Harry Kane, with seven Champions League goals to his name, will hope to inspire Bayern to victory. Real, meanwhile, will look towards Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham for inspiration.

Borussia Dortmund vs Paris Saint-Germain (Wednesday 1st May, 8pm)

Few would have had Borussia Dortmund down as Champions League semi-finalists this season.

Edin Terzić’s side have been plagued by inconsistency in domestic competition, but they showed impressive resilience to beat Atlético Madrid in the last eight.

This is the first time BVB have reached the Champions League semi-finals since 2013, when they went on to beat Real Madrid and set up an all-German final against Bayern.

The same could happen this year, although PSG will be strong favourites to progress.

Luis Enrique’s team were convincing in their 4-1 victory over Barcelona in their quarter-final second leg — albeit helped by Ronald Araújo’s first-half red card.

PSG are likely to dominate the ball against Dortmund: they have averaged 58.77% possession to the latter’s 47.42%.

The Germans will look to soak up pressure and counter-attack at pace.

But they will need to be wary of PSG’s threat in transition, too. No team has a better xG from counter-attacks per match (0.29) than the Ligue 1 leaders.

The obvious threat of Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé will be occupying Terzić’s thoughts.

And Dortmund will need to improve defensively. Their opponents have underperformed their xG by an alarming 0.91 per match in the Champions League this season, which suggests a combination of misfortune and good goalkeeping.

Marseille vs Atalanta (Thursday 2nd May, 8pm)

Atalanta will be full of confidence heading into the Europa League semi-finals after getting the better of Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool.

Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have been impressive defensively, ranking first in the competition for non-penalty goals conceded per match (0.4).

Marseille, by comparison, have let in 1.33 non-penalty goals per game and are far less secure at the back.

The Ligue 1 outfit make up for that by scoring freely, though. Only four teams have netted more goals per match than Marseille (2.17), and in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang they have the competition’s top scorer (10 goals).

Jean-Louis Gasset’s outfit have been clinical in front of goal, with a post-shot xG of 2.11 per game to Atalanta’s 1.89. That could be the difference in what is likely to be a close semi-final.

Marseille also rank first in the Europa League for duel success (52.49%), but they will be tested against an Atalanta side full of self-belief.

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen (Thursday 2nd May, 8pm)

Bayer Leverkusen will now be the favourites to win the Europa League, having overcome West Ham in the quarter-finals.

Xabi Alonso’s side are Bundesliga champions and will be aiming to add continental honours to their sensational 2023-24 season.

They have, remarkably, yet to lose a game in all competitions this term, with Jeremie Frimpong’s late equaliser at the London Stadium helping to preserve an unbeaten run that now stretches to 46 matches.

No team in the Europa League has completed more passes (572), had more touches in the opposition box (28.2) or amassed a greater non-penalty xG (2.2) per match than Leverkusen.

The German side also lead the way for passes per possession (6.98) and passing accuracy (90.64%), with 59.79% average possession.

Roma will need to be disciplined defensively, then, and will inevitably spend long periods of the tie without the ball.

Daniele De Rossi has got his team well-drilled out of possession. Only four teams have conceded a lower post-shot xG per match (0.85) than I Giallorossi.

With the threat of Paulo Dybala and a fully fit Tammy Abraham in attack, Roma will hope to inflict a first defeat of the season on Leverkusen.

Aston Villa vs Olympiacos (Thursday 2nd May, 8pm)

Olympiacos dropped out of the Europa League into the Conference League and have progressed all the way to the semi-finals.

Both Aston Villa and their Greek opponents came through penalty shoot-outs in the quarter-finals, against Lille and Fenerbahçe respectively.

Unai Emery, who has won the Europa League four times as a manager, is on course for his first Conference League title with Villa, who are now the favourites to lift the trophy.

Only three teams have a lower xG conceded per match (0.54) than the Villans, and they rank second for non-penalty shots conceded per 90 (5.92).

Villa are also in the top ten for average possession (58.99%) and will expect to dictate play, particularly at home, against Olympiacos.

The Greek side are combative and resilient, though. They rank fourth for ball recoveries completed per game (108).

Villa will also need to be wary of Olympiacos’s threat on the break: they rank second for xG from counter-attacks per match (0.38).

Fiorentina vs Club Brugge (Thursday 2nd May, 8pm)

Fiorentina will be hoping to go one better than last year, when they were beaten by West Ham in the Conference League final.

Vincenzo Italiano’s side have impressed again in the competition, going unbeaten from the group stages to the semi-finals.

No team in the Conference League has averaged more possession (63.23%) and they will look to control both legs against in-form Club Brugge.

Fiorentina have been strong at the back, ranking first for non-penalty shots conceded per match (5.25) and conceding an xG per game of just 0.71.

Brugge themselves are defensively robust, allowing their opposition an average of only 0.74 xG per game.

The Belgian side have also been more productive in attack, scoring 2.44 goals per game to Fiorentina’s 1.92.

Brugge rank third in the Conference League for successful attacking actions per match (33.88), and they will hope their quality in the final third can be the difference against Fiorentina.

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