Why Chelsea want Sterling and Raphinha
This could well be an era-defining summer for Chelsea.
The Blues look set to land Raheem Sterling to kickstart Todd Boehly’s ownership and now appear to have spectacularly hijacked Arsenal’s deal for Raphinha. The Gunners had been favourites to sign the Brazilian playmaker, reportedly making the most of Barcelona’s financial difficulties.
It looked to be a matter of when and not if the Leeds No10 would make the move to the Emirates. However, news emerged that Chelsea had outbid their London rivals and that, barring something exceptional, Raphinha will be strutting his stuff at Stamford Bridge next season.
Spending £100million on your attack is one way to make a statement. This is not spending for the sake of it, though. Chelsea have loaned record signing Romelu Lukaku back to Inter Milan and there is uncertainty surrounding the futures of Timo Werner, Christian Pulisic and Hakim Ziyech.
Thomas Tuchel’s side finished as the third-highest scorers in the Premier League last term, netting 76 times, but they will have to boost those numbers if they are to challenge for the title.
As a loose guide, you get one point per goal scored at the top end of the Premier League.
A return of 76 from 38 outings (two per game) is by no means an issue. But 13 goals arrived in two matches – the 7-0 win over Norwich City and the 6-0 win over Southampton. Remove those games and the Blues’ average drops to 1.75. That probably gives you a fairer overview of the Chelsea attack last term.
Extrapolate that 1.75 over the course of a 38-game campaign and you finish with 66 goals. Using the one point per goal model, that sort of return is a top-four push at best.
Revamping the attack is not a want, it is a need.
In Sterling, the Blues are adding a reliable goal threat and goalscorer. The England international has hit double figures in five successive campaigns, all while playing in a Manchester City side that is regularly rotated. With a more secure spot in the first-team, his output should increase.
Raphinha has not necessarily been a goal machine for Leeds – though he has netted 17 times across two campaigns – but he is a creative menace. As a duo, they could work really well.
With the use of shot and shot assist maps, I’ll explain what I mean.
Firstly: shot maps from last season. Those in red belong to Sterling and those in blue represent Raphinha.
Sterling scored a lot of his goals from close range and the majority of his attempts arrived from within the penalty area. City look to control everything on the pitch so Guardiola is not going to want his players to take low-value efforts.
The Brazilian, on the other hand, is a lot more unpredictable with his output. He shoots from distance but also tests the keeper from range and converts some of those efforts. So there is some pay-off there.
It is when looking at the shot assists map that you start to build up a better picture.
Once again, the red is for Sterling and the blue is for Raphinha.
A lot of the shots the one-time Liverpool player assisted last term come from passes from inside or just outside the penalty area.
Meanwhile, former Rennes winger Raphinha assisted a lot more efforts from deeper positions. He would drift inside from the right and look to get the ball onto his stronger left foot. On paper, this blends well with what Sterling offers.
Raphinha can thread passes behind defensive lines for Sterling to latch onto. In theory, both can play their natural game and can slot seamlessly into the Chelsea team.
With Kai Havertz expected to lead the line for Chelsea, the Blues could well have a fluid front three next season. The Germany international is comfortable on either flank, he links well with the midfield and he’s a master at creating space. He could be the facilitator, Sterling the goalscorer and Raphinha the creator.
That would be three key boxes ticked for Tuchel and it would make his side a lot more dangerous in the final third.
In this article, all graphics were produced in the Twenty3 Toolbox.
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