The evolution of Team-o Werner
Chelsea found themselves in an odd place as the new season kicked off. Their spending spree heaped the pressure on Frank Lampard and his side, with the view that they should be challenging for the Premier League title. However, the large number of arrivals also appeared to lessen the expectations being placed on the team, with the feeling that it is nearly impossible to bed six new players into the starting XI without results suffering.
At first glance, it was a no-win, no-lose situation.
Yet Lampard, without much fanfare it has to be said, has guided the Blues to nine wins in all competitions and they’re unbeaten since September. In fact, the 2-0 loss to champions Liverpool is their only defeat of the season.
The Blues have tweaked their system on multiple occasions this term, but Timo Werner has started all ten games in the Premier League. Lampard’s use and reliance on him shows the Germany international is already a key player.
Ahead of the campaign, we looked at how Chelsea might line-up after signing Werner. His signing was a statement one. He’d previously been linked with Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City and even Barcelona. The 24-year-old was one of the most prolific forwards in Europe last season, netting 28 times in 34 outings for RB Leipzig. The big question surrounding his move was how Lampard would fit him into the team.
While in Germany, Werner primarily operated in two roles. He burst onto the scene with VfB Stuttgart as a left-winger before transitioning into a centre-forward at the Red Bull Arena. He wasn’t your traditional striker, though, often dropping to the left side of the pitch before picking when to exploit the space created for him by partner Yussuf Poulsen.
On paper, Chelsea have three players who could fulfil the ‘Poulsen role’; Tammy Abraham, Olivier Giroud and Kai Havertz. So, the 4-2-2-2 system that Werner flourished in could be replicated, in theory. That looked like the route Lampard would take but, despite having an array of wide players to choose from, he’s returned Werner to his roots, and deployed the German on the left.
With just four goals to his name in the English top flight playing in the wide role, there has been a bit of a clamour to see him leading the Chelsea line. Lampard clearly has a plan for his versatile forward.
As you can see in the heat maps above, the spaces he’s taking up on the pitch this season aren’t too dissimilar to the areas he occupied during his final campaign in the Bundesliga. The noticeable differences are that he’s more active in his own half and he’s having fewer touches in the penalty area. The numbers back that up. Werner was averaging 6.66 touches in the box with RBL and that figure now stands at 4.8.
Twenty3’s passing flow maps help paint a better picture of what is happening. Werner, for the German side, was much more direct and he was always trying to get the ball into the penalty area. For Chelsea, it’s a bit more about ball retention. His passing accuracy is nearly 10% up since the switch to Stamford Bridge.
This could also explain why he’s attempting fewer shots on a per 90 basis this season. For Die Roten Bullen, Werner was averaging 3.56 efforts. He was all about volume and while many think finishing is the best trait for a forward, the most underappreciated skill is being in the right place at the right time. RBL found a way to ensure their star man was getting high-quality, repeatable chances almost every single match.
Werner was adding value to his shots with his placement, as highlighted in his expected goals (xG) vs post-shot expected goal (PsxG) averages. In open-play last season, the 35-cap international had an xG average of 0.43 but a PSxG average of 0.54. This might not seem like much, but, over a 38-game season that is a difference of 4.18.
He’s a genuine goal threat and successful teams in the Premier League have multiple goalscorers within their ranks. Despite the change in roles, Werner still has an xG and PSxG average of close to 0.30. He’s not exceeding his xG numbers, yet. But all the signs are there to suggest he’ll be able to add quality to his efforts once again. The speedster is hitting the corners. When these start going in, Chelsea will have a wide forward in the mould of Sadio Mané or Raheem Sterling.
This might explain why Werner is being used on the left. The shape allows Lampard to deploy a centre-forward and multiple attacking midfielders to improve their general threat.
Werner isn’t underperforming, he’s simply playing a different role that benefits the team.
All the graphics and visualisations in this article use Wyscout data and were produced in the Twenty3 Toolbox.
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